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What should we expect in the aftermath of Brexit?

Posted by: Suzi Parkinson
27/06/2016

 

The votes are in and on the 24th June 2016 the United Kingdom voted to leave the EU.

 The result is a political earthquake. But what does Britain leaving the European Union mean for the UK economy and job market? 

It is now clear to everyone that the uncertainty around Britain’s future relationship with the EU, its largest trading partner, could push the UK into a recession at least in the short term. Market watchers predict an "explosion of volatility". In the long run, the situation could materialise to be even worse. If Cameron’s government falls, the uncertainty will only grow and Britain’s prospects of negotiating a favourable deal with the EU could be weakened.

No need to say that the result was a shock for a number of people including European citizens who have been working in the UK for years, new or recent jobseekers, and employers across all sectors although more so in the financial and banking industry.

According to the Metro this morning, some banks have already revealed some plans to relocate jobs. JP Morgan said that it could move more than 4000 roles and HSBC declared that they would move 1000 positions elsewhere if the UK lost access to the single market. Big, global banks employ over 60,000 people in the UK and they are already being captivated by politicians and bureaucrats in rival European cities such as Dublin and Frankfurt.

The Institute of Directors (IoD) - the UK’s longest running organisation for professional leaders - issued a survey immediately after the vote to company directors, senior business leaders and entrepreneurs; two thirds of which said that the referendum result would be “negative” for them and as a consequence they will start to freeze recruitment and cut investment plans.
While a third of businesses said they would continue to hire at the same pace, a quarter planned to freeze their recruitment plans and 5 per cent expected to make staff redundant. More than a third planned to reduce their investment plans and a fifth said they would consider moving some operations abroad.

The poll is an early indication that a British exit from the bloc could hit jobs and investment.

“We cannot sugarcoat this: many of our members are feeling anxious,” said Simon Walker, the IoD’s director-general.

Recruitment & Employment Confederation Chief Executive Kevin Green commented:

“We need to ensure that British businesses continue to be able to get the people they need to fill the jobs available. Access to talent is absolutely vital to sustainable economic growth and prosperity. In sectors such as healthcare, education, hospitality, construction and manufacturing, workers from the EU are vital and any change to our immigration system needs to recognise that.”

But it is the uncertainty that will reek havoc across our economy and society and the only certainty now is that Britain now finds itself at an unprecedented historic crux.

 

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